Raw projections
Expected scorelines, margins and total points for every fixture.
AFL Weekly Ratings
The AFL Dynamic Elo Engine
A dual-architecture Elo and margin simulation engine built for the venue, travel and scoring volatility of modern AFL.
US$30/month · Every AFL round · Model estimates are informational only.
What you get
AFL Weekly Ratings
Every AFL round
Win probabilities
Outright model probabilities for each side.
Spread matrix
Alternate-line probabilities around the projected margin.
Total matrix
Alternate Over/Under probabilities and model-implied prices.
Get the product
AFL Weekly Ratings
US$30/month
Checkout and digital delivery are handled through Math & Bets on Gumroad.
Under the hood
How the engine is built.
01
Dynamic Elo
The current setup uses a reactive Elo update with season carryover to track changes in team strength.
02
60-day scoring decay
Scoring profiles use time-decay weighting so recent form matters more than older results.
03
Venue intelligence
The engine adjusts for venue context, travel and shared-ground situations rather than applying one generic home advantage.
04
Travel adjustments
The supplied model includes targeted travel/venue effects for interstate and Adelaide/Perth contexts.
05
10,000 joint simulations
Total points and margin are simulated together so projected scores, H2H prices and line probabilities reconcile.
FAQ
What to know before you use it.
How does the model handle shared grounds?
The current framework can remove or reduce home-ground advantage when both clubs share the venue.
Does it account for interstate travel?
Yes. Venue and travel adjustments are part of the current Elo and margin framework.
How often is it updated?
The dashboard is designed around each AFL round.
Math & Bets
From intuition to probability.
Use the model as a second opinion — then decide for yourself.