Raw projections
Expected scorelines and model spreads.
NRL Weekly Ratings
The NRL Predictive Engine
A hybrid scoring-and-form model built for NRL variance, combining Negative Binomial dispersion, Dixon-Coles structure, rolling Elo and calibration.
US$30/month · Every round · Model estimates are informational only.
What you get
NRL Weekly Ratings
Every round
Calibrated win probabilities
Outright probabilities after the calibration layer.
Simulation matrix
The distilled output of 50,000 simulations per match.
Weekly dashboard
A complete round view generated after the previous round’s results are processed.
Get the product
NRL Weekly Ratings
US$30/month
Checkout and digital delivery are handled through Math & Bets on Gumroad.
Under the hood
How the engine is built.
01
Negative Binomial dispersion
The scoring model allows for overdispersion, representing a wider range of score outcomes than a standard Poisson model.
02
Hybrid DC + Elo
Micro-level scoring mechanics are combined with a rolling Elo view of team form.
03
Isotonic calibration
A non-parametric calibration layer is used to correct systematic over- or under-confidence in probability ranges.
04
Venue & travel
Home advantage, neutral fixtures, regional grounds and travel context are incorporated.
05
50,000 simulations
Each fixture is simulated 50,000 times to generate the final distribution.
FAQ
What to know before you use it.
Why not use a standard Poisson model?
The current design uses Negative Binomial dispersion to better represent the wider variance seen in NRL scoring.
What does isotonic calibration do?
It adjusts probability ranges when historical forecasts show systematic over- or under-confidence.
How much does it cost?
The current price is US$30/month.
Math & Bets
From intuition to probability.
Use the model as a second opinion — then decide for yourself.