Raw projections
Expected score for every matchup.
NFL Season Ratings
The NFL Markov Engine
A play-by-play simulation engine that models how teams move the chains and then plays each matchup out 10,000 times.
US$30/month · Every NFL slate · Model estimates are informational only.
What you get
NFL Season Ratings
Every NFL slate
Cover matrix
Probability estimates across alternate spread lines.
Total matrix
Over/Under probability views for the same slate.
Win probabilities
Outright model probabilities for comparison with available market prices.
Get the product
NFL Season Ratings
US$30/month
Checkout and digital delivery are handled through Math & Bets on Gumroad.
Under the hood
How the engine is built.
01
Markov drive engine
Historical play-by-play data is used to model movement through 1st, 2nd and 3rd down situations.
02
Offence / defence blend
The current setup blends offensive efficiency with opponent defensive resistance, with quarterback-level treatment included.
03
10,000 simulations
Each matchup is simulated 10,000 times to create score and market probability distributions.
04
Backtest framework
The supplied model description references a five-year, 1,350+ game out-of-sample backtest; live forecasts should still be treated as estimates, not guarantees.
FAQ
What to know before you use it.
Is the model just using the market line?
No. It produces its own projections from play-by-play and efficiency inputs; market prices are a comparison point.
Does it account for quarterbacks?
Yes. Quarterback performance is treated explicitly within the current modelling framework.
How often is it updated?
The product is designed for each NFL slate, with outputs refreshed as new games and information become available.
Math & Bets
From intuition to probability.
Use the model as a second opinion — then decide for yourself.