Projected score
Expected points for both teams.
NBA Season Ratings
The NBA Gamma-Poisson Engine
A possession-efficiency forecasting engine that simulates each matchup 10,000 times and adjusts for recency, rest, travel and home court.
US$30/month · NBA slate updates · Model estimates are informational only.
What you get
NBA Season Ratings
NBA slate updates
Model spread
The engine’s projected scoring differential.
Win probability
Outright model probability for each side.
Matchup dashboard
A compact output designed for quick comparison with market prices.
Get the product
NBA Season Ratings
US$30/month
Checkout and digital delivery are handled through Math & Bets on Gumroad.
Under the hood
How the engine is built.
01
Gamma-Poisson simulation
The current engine uses a Gamma-Poisson framework to represent scoring uncertainty across repeated matchup simulations.
02
10,000 simulations
Each game is played out 10,000 times to estimate scores, spreads and outright win probabilities.
03
Recency blend
Recent form is blended with broader season information so the model can react without overreacting to a single night.
04
Fatigue & travel
Rest, travel and back-to-back situations are used to adjust offensive and defensive expectations.
05
Home-court isolation
Home advantage is treated separately from overall team quality.
FAQ
What to know before you use it.
Does the model use recent form?
Yes. Recent games are blended with broader season metrics to balance responsiveness and stability.
Does it account for rest?
Yes. Rest, travel and load-management effects are included in the current framework.
Is the projected spread a guaranteed edge?
No. It is a model estimate designed for comparison with the market, not a guaranteed outcome.
Math & Bets
From intuition to probability.
Use the model as a second opinion — then decide for yourself.