Weekly ratings file
Selected fixtures, projected xG, cover probabilities and model-implied prices.
Football Weekly Ratings
The Global Football GLM Engine
Weekly football ratings built to turn model outputs into prices you can compare with the market.
US$30/month · Updated weekly · Model estimates are informational only.
What you get
Football Weekly Ratings
Updated weekly
Asian Handicap matrix
Quarter- and half-line probabilities for direct comparison with market prices.
Price thresholds
Model-derived reference points showing where a market price starts to diverge from the model estimate.
League-by-league coverage
Coverage changes with the football calendar and available data.
Get the product
Football Weekly Ratings
US$30/month
Checkout and digital delivery are handled through Math & Bets on Gumroad.
Under the hood
How the engine is built.
01
Quasi-Poisson GLM
Team attack and defence strength estimated with a generalized linear model, using Expected Goals when suitable xG data is available.
02
Exponential time decay
Recent matches receive more weight than older matches. The current configuration uses a 120-day half-life.
03
Dixon-Coles adjustment
Low-scoring outcomes receive a dedicated correction to improve the treatment of scoreline dependence.
04
Multi-league inputs
The engine adapts to data availability, preferring xG where reliable and falling back to goal data where necessary.
FAQ
What to know before you use it.
Are these betting tips?
No. These are model estimates and market-comparison tools, not guarantees of future outcomes.
Does the model always use xG?
Where suitable xG data is available, it is preferred. Otherwise the engine can use goal data with more conservative uncertainty handling.
How often is it updated?
The product is designed as a weekly release, subject to fixture schedules and data availability.
Math & Bets
From intuition to probability.
Use the model as a second opinion — then decide for yourself.